Romain Bonenfant and Laurent Kueny’s dissertation entitled De l’arme du pétrole aux armes pour le pétrole (From oil as a weapon to weapons for oil) discusses the state of future oil supplies for the next thirty years. Paradoxically, while there is a problem associated with a shortage of hydrocarbons, there is also a problem associated with their superabundance which results in the release of carbon emissions into the atmosphere producing a dramatic impact on climate. Although the latter problem appears more important than the former, geopolitical crises, which may be generated by a shortage of hydrocarbons, appear to influence public opinion more than progressive climate change. Unless new energy fields can be found to prevent a disruption of supply, and as there is no alternative form of energy available in the near future, there is a risk of price increases in those hydrocarbons which are used, and which will cause increased carbon emissions. Major conflicts may arise between producer and consumer countries. In the consumer countries there may be conflict between those which are already industrialised and those which are on the path to industrialisation.
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Bonenfant, Romain, Laurent Kueny, Olivier Appert, Hervé Juvin, Elisabeth Bourguinat, and Rachel Marlin. 2007. The new factors affecting the supply of oil. http://ecole.org/seminaires/FS6/SEM343.
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